Nick Cullen is a Partner, Research & Development, at Hoare Lea and sits on the BCO's Environmental Sustainability Group (ESG).
Over the past few years he has been very active in BCO Research and played a key member in the team behind Good Practice in the Selection of Construction Materials (March 2011).
In a selection of blogs from the BCO's ESG Nick shares his views on Climate Change...do you agree?
I have spent the past 16 years of my professional life arguing the case for carbon reduction within the business and property sectors. I have used data and analysis from globally renowned scientists and policy makers - the case for action seemed irrefutable.
What’s more, it seemed important that the UK, the birth place of the
fossil-fuelled industrial revolution, should lead the way and commit to a near
carbon free future. Arguing for this was easy, what’s not to like? Well, the
short term financial cost might be one thing, but this was easily countered by
arguments about externalities and the long-term benefits of a green economy.
And yet over these 16 years something odd has happened: global
temperatures haven’t risen as predicted. The upward trend forecast by the
climate models has failed to materialise, despite CO2 levels punching through
the 400ppm level in May. The actual global temperature is on the verge of being
lower than the low range of climate prediction.
This isn’t due to any action taken by mankind, we have still managed to
pump 100 billion tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere over the first decade of this
new millennium. In truth, climate scientists have yet to understand why the
climate is not responding in line with model predictions, and they continue to
update their models as data builds. This is the nature of science. Global
Climate is complex and perhaps we have been unrealistic about our expectations
of the science. Understanding how our
global climate responds, climate sensitivity, to the undoubted increase in
greenhouse gases is now the focus of many climate scientists.
Rather like a flat lining economy, there are mixed signals. While global temperatures
may have not increased, averages can disguise a multitude of other signals. There
have been temperature increases more locally, most notably in the polar regions
leading to a decrease in the amount of Artic sea ice.
What does this mean for the UK? Should we continue with the current raft
of policies that will directly increase costs, particularly to businesses and
individuals, at a time when we are struggling to grow our economy and when fuel
poverty is increasing? A significant proportion, 28%, of the domestic electricity
bill is attributable to environmental measures and £300 billion of investment
is required by 2020 to adapt our infrastructure to enable our low carbon
future.
While I confess to heretical thoughts on the subject of climate change, I
am going to hedge my bets. The precautionary approach remains a sensible
response to the uncertainties of climate science and we can’t wait until the
science of climate is better understood. The basic principles of mitigation,
such as improving resource use efficiency, are sound. However, the successful
transition to a low carbon economy requires considerable investment and a
successful economy above all, perhaps we should at least consider whether the
fact that the planet's climate does not appear to be as sensitive to CO2 as
first thought, may justify a pause.
For further information covering the topics raised in this blog you can take a look at the following BCO Research papers, which have been produced in association with the BCO Environmental Sustainability Group:
At a time when Germany is in the midst of a rapid transition to renewable energy, which is said to be the country's biggest and most expensive project since the fall of the Berlin wall (see article from www.bbc.co.uk/news), should we be following suit? Or do you agree that we should be taking a brief pause? Post your comments on our LinkedIn Group BCO Online.
- On-site Renewables (September 2012)
- Whole-life Carbon Footprint Measurement and Offices (March 2012)
- Designing for Biodiversity, Productivity and Profit (March 2011)
At a time when Germany is in the midst of a rapid transition to renewable energy, which is said to be the country's biggest and most expensive project since the fall of the Berlin wall (see article from www.bbc.co.uk/news), should we be following suit? Or do you agree that we should be taking a brief pause? Post your comments on our LinkedIn Group BCO Online.
